July 2006
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Day July 29, 2006

Entries 2 Total

Present success is no indication of future failure

Jul 29, ’06 4:29 PM

In the New Yorker, James Surowiecki tells us to take a chill pill over Airbus’ current struggles.

In 2003, Business Week declared that Boeing was “choking on Airbus’ fumes,” and warned that Boeing’s “slip to No. 2 could become permanent.”

The problem with such prognostications is that they infer basic truths about a company’s prospects from its short-term performance. In fact, present success is often determined as much by context and chance as by fundamental viability. This is particularly true of the aerospace industry, because success is heavily dependent on a small number of big gambles. If you bet right, you look like a genius for a few years, even if the success of your bet was due to factors out of your control.

In the first few seasons after Jason Kidd joined the Nets, he would have two- or three-week stretches of lights-out shooting, leading commentators and sportswriters to announce that Kidd had “turned the corner” and become a good shooter.

Unfortunately, Jason Kidd is a career 40% shooter. All the good runs have been balanced out by below-average runs, leaving him exactly where he’s been since the start of his career: hitting 40% of his shots.

It doesn’t mean he’s not one of the best point guards of the last 30 years; he is. He’s just not a good shooter, and statistical blips are just that.

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Dog, hair, etc.

Jul 29, ’06 10:21 AM

Surprise, dear readers! Amy & I are down in Louisiana, having surprised the official VM mother-in-law for her brithday yesterday! While we did keep it a secret from almost everyone, I’m starting to think we could’ve told them all we were coming, since no one would believe that people would actually come down here in late July.

Because it’s flat-out hot, brothers and sisters. The humidity adds a layer of stank to it, but the heat is just awful. The weekend after I proposed to Amy, we sat down with a 2006 calendar to figure out what weekends we could have the wedding. Our first move was to cross out the 5-month span between mid-May and mid-October.

We’ll spend time in New Orleans on Sunday, and I’m hoping to get some good pictures for your edification & enjoyment.

On the flight down here, I got upgraded to first class, which is always nice. It was a 7am flight, so I was too exhausted to get nervous about the flight. I just got some coffee and read for a bit. My co-first-class-ters, on the other hand, felt that 7am is a good time to start drinking. I mean, I know that the drinks are free in first class, but having a Jack-and-coke at that hour doesn’t seem like a smart strategy to me, unless maybe you’re seeking a homeopathic remedy for New Orleans.

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