{"id":1056,"date":"2006-07-29T16:29:16","date_gmt":"2006-07-29T21:29:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chimeraobscura.com\/vm\/present-success-is-no-indication-of-future-failure\/"},"modified":"2006-07-29T16:29:16","modified_gmt":"2006-07-29T21:29:16","slug":"present-success-is-no-indication-of-future-failure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/chimeraobscura.com\/vm\/present-success-is-no-indication-of-future-failure","title":{"rendered":"Present success is no indication of future failure"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the New Yorker, James Surowiecki tells us to take a chill pill over Airbus’ current struggles<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In 2003, Business Week declared that Boeing was \u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c5\u201cchoking on Airbus\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2 fumes,\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c2\u009d and warned that Boeing\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2s \u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c5\u201cslip to No. 2 could become permanent.\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c2\u009d<\/p>\n

The problem with such prognostications is that they infer basic truths about a company\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2s prospects from its short-term performance. In fact, present success is often determined as much by context and chance as by fundamental viability. This is particularly true of the aerospace industry, because success is heavily dependent on a small number of big gambles. If you bet right, you look like a genius for a few years, even if the success of your bet was due to factors out of your control.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In the first few seasons after Jason Kidd joined the Nets, he would have two- or three-week stretches of lights-out shooting, leading commentators and sportswriters to announce that Kidd had “turned the corner” and become a good shooter.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, Jason Kidd is a career 40% shooter. All the good runs have been balanced out by below-average runs, leaving him exactly where he’s been since the start of his career: hitting 40% of his shots.<\/p>\n

It doesn’t mean he’s not one of the best point guards of the last 30 years; he is. He’s just not a good shooter, and statistical blips are just that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the New Yorker, James Surowiecki tells us to take a chill pill over Airbus’ current struggles. In 2003, Business Week declared that Boeing was \u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c5\u201cchoking on Airbus\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2 fumes,\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c2\u009d and warned that Boeing\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2s \u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c5\u201cslip to No. 2 could become permanent.\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c2\u009d The problem with such prognostications is that they infer basic truths about a company\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2s prospects … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Present success is no indication of future failure”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2,27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-basketball","category-big-business"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4C7K-h2","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":524,"url":"http:\/\/chimeraobscura.com\/vm\/success","url_meta":{"origin":1056,"position":0},"title":"SUCCESS!","author":"Gil","date":"April 27, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"Dad succesfully underwent a quintuple bypass this morning! The surgeon says that it went well.(Dad didn't say anything, since he's currently unconscious in the cardiac intensive care unit, but he oughtta be awake in a couple of hours.)Thanks again for all the support! (We'll need it during his rehab\/recuperation)","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1859,"url":"http:\/\/chimeraobscura.com\/vm\/success-i-mean-failure","url_meta":{"origin":1056,"position":1},"title":"Success! I mean, Failure!","author":"Gil","date":"January 23, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Longtime readers know that I like me some failure. But I'm a failure when I measure up to Nathan Rabin. This guy has managed to review more than 100 movie-failures in a year. 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I just bluffed my way into every one of 'em.'\" --Wayne White Artist Wayne White joins the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Art"","block_context":{"text":"Art","link":"http:\/\/chimeraobscura.com\/vm\/category\/art"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"http:\/\/ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/e\/ir?t=voyantpublishing&l=as2&o=1&a=1770461531","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":941,"url":"http:\/\/chimeraobscura.com\/vm\/art-inaction","url_meta":{"origin":1056,"position":4},"title":"Art Inaction","author":"Gil","date":"May 4, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Witold Rybczynski has an article at Slate about how architects create a brand for themselves. Near the end, he brings up a point that I'd like to ponder (and would like you, dear reader, to ponder): Most architectural careers are marked by a deliberate evolution--a slow simmer rather than a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Art"","block_context":{"text":"Art","link":"http:\/\/chimeraobscura.com\/vm\/category\/art"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":654,"url":"http:\/\/chimeraobscura.com\/vm\/memorial-day","url_meta":{"origin":1056,"position":5},"title":"Memorial Day","author":"Gil","date":"September 11, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"Last month, one of my best friends asked me what I plan on doing on Sept. 11. 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