Virtual Memories: Belfast

My Belfast trip was so quick — and the ensuing days were so harried between work and the secret/surprise trip to St. Louis — that I haven’t had time to put together my impressions of the trip. They’re already fading, so it’s time to get these memories onto the virtual page, dear readers.

* * *

Pix

The flight in

Belfast City Centre

The Giants Causeway

The flight home

* * *

I checked into the Europa (aforementioned most bombed hotel in the world) around 9:30 Sunday morning. I told the front desk, “I’ll need a wake-up call in 3 hours.”

“What time do you need to be called?”

“What’s 3 hours from now?”

I slept 4 hours. I’ve already posted pix & impressions from that afternoon’s meander around City Centre, but didn’t mention any of that evening’s doings.

After the walk, I hung out in my room for a bit, watched House & 30 Rock on their U.S. reruns channel, and then decided to go out for some dinner. In the lobby, I bumped into Jim M., the guru for the industry I cover; he called before the trip to see about getting together, but I was too tired to call him once I’d arrived. He was in the lobby with Jim McG., a high-up at the company that brought us out to Belfast. Jim McG. is a local, but he’s been working in the U.S. for years. Why don’t we all go to the hotel bar for a drink?

In lieu of dinner, I drank Guinness with two men named Jim, and bantered about life in the States, politics and Georgie Best. We also watched our bartender fly into a rage, punch a patron, and shove him out to the street. We’re not sure what the patron said, but the small, wiry man wasted no time in racing out from behind the bar and past local Jim and his tray with 2.5 pints of Guinness, to deliver a decent shot to the patron’s chin.

Our table was up a few steps from the floor of the bar, so I had a good vantage for the whole confrontation. Delusional with exhaustion and fortified by Vitamin G, I thought, “If anyone takes out a weapon, I can go over the railing with a chair and lay down the law!”

Fortunately, no weapons came out and, since the bar was otherwise empty, there was no potential for a larger brawl. Local Jim blanched as he returned to our table with the tray. American Jim said, “We better avoid whatever that guy ordered.”

* * *

Monday morning, coffee and a scone at Esquires, next door to the Europa. I’m having breakfast in Belfast, and the stereo is playing Breakfast in America, by Supertramp.

* * *

In a WH Smith bookstore display: Are You a Miserable Old Git? I immediately regret not buying this as a 70th birthday present for my dad. Or as a 40th birthday present for my brother.

* * *

So many of the teens in the city wear camouflage-style clothes. I wonder if it’s connected to growing up around paramilitaries, but it occurs to me that I have no idea what American kids are wearing nowadays.

* * *

Monday noon bus ride up to the Giants Causeway. It’s all couples and groups and solo me. Thinking ahead, I brought along my iPod and now set about making some songlines. The direct route up to Antrim is boring: farmland, light industry, cheap housing. The long way up around the coast is supposed to be much more picturesque, but I don’t have time for the full tour, since I need to be back in the evening to meet American Jim and Philip (a higher-up high-up at the company) for dinner and drinks.

So it’s dull highway landscape for me. Most of the songlines are buried now; they’ll emerge someday when a song pops up. (Just now, The Dead Heart by Midnight Oil has shuffled up on my iPod and puts me in a bar in Wellington, NZ.) The only one that sticks and needs to be revisited is Ring Road, from the new Underworld record. The song infuriated me when I first heard it; the deliberate fuzz of the microphone and the giant bass drum, the strange half-sung extensions of syllables and clipped vocal timing bothered the heck out of me, but it’s all snapping together on this busride. Like most of their music, the lyrics are fragmented, but this one’s got much more concrete imagery, describing a poor British neighborhood. You get the chorus:

people are squinting to block out the sun

complaining or soaking it up

praying for rain the next minute

for a scorched earth

what’s it worth

enough is never

enough

let’s have a little moan

put the world to right

sit back and watch it all slide by

it’s a view from a train

pay somebody else to drive

see the suits

i see the suits sunning themselves on the steps

of the supermarket

and i think of you

and i’m alone like this

burning from the inside

I didn’t say it would make any sense to you, but it stayed with me throughout the trip. I don’t have any Van Morrison on my iPod.

* * *

The bus driver tells us about the Milk Cup, an international 18-and-under soccer tournament. The trophy presenter at last year’s tournament was “the world’s second greatest soccer player”: Pele.

“And we all know who was Best,” he reminds us.

* * *

I didn’t know what I was looking at when I first reached the Giants Causeway. The structure seemed too ordered to be natural and too nonsensical to be manmade. But the implicate order is out there, and it’s beyond my ken. The world keeps unfolding in wonders and glory.

Standing on the hexagonal columns of basalt, I wondered how much of the world I’d have seen if I didn’t have this job. If I had a job that paid just as well as this one, but didn’t involve travel, would I have seen a quarter of these miracles?

* * *

Walking on my own, I take off my headphones and listen to the wind and the waves, humming The Who’s Sea and Sand. It’s about 45 degrees and breezy. I take pictures everywhere. There are plenty of tourists on the trail, young and old. I follow it to the end; it’s fenced off with barbed wire, because the remainder of the trail is susceptible to mudslides and collapse. When I get to the barbed wire, I pull up close for a macro of a barb with the striated cliffs in the background.

Heading back, the trail forks, with one branch leading to a staircase up to the top of the cliffs; I decide to take it and its 162 steps. I count 155 of them before a family coming down the stairs causes me to jump up a couple of steps and lose count. At the top, I see a sheep farm and try to get a decent photo of one of those woolly bricks.

I look down from the edge of the cliffs to the Causeway and feel elation, wonder and the cool breeze, but no vertigo, no swoon, no moment-before-flight.

* * *

Returning to Belfast. On the left: St. Anne’s cathedral, with an enormously long cross at its spire. On the right: a gay bar called the Kremlin.

* * *

A full day of pharma-facility tours and business presentations. One high point is seeing the incredibly detailed work involved in making clinical trial supplies of a metered-dose inhaler drug. Sounds boring, but the engineering and the sheer effort required to make materials for a blinded trial of this device knocked me out.

Throughout the day, we have to gown up to enter clean environments. In addition to lab coats and hair nets (and beard snoods, if necessary), we also have to put Tyvek covers on our shoes. A typical gowning room is set up with a long metal bench that separates the “clean” area from the dirty. For footwear, the technique is: sit down on the bench, pull an elasticized cover over one of your shoes, then place that foot in the clean area without letting it back down in the dirty area. Straddling the bench, pull the cover onto the other foot and put that one down in the clean area.

But all day long, one of the other pharma-editors would just put both covers over his shoes while standing in the dirty area, then step over the bench. Each time, American Jim & I just look at each other with a “Is this his first time in a cleanroom?” look. I keep thinking that the guy will notice how we’re gowning up, realize his mistake, and follow suit. By our fifth gown-up, it still hasn’t happened. I resolve then never to read his magazine.

In the evening, I mention this to one of the client’s staffers. He laughs and says that he noticed it, too. “If we were going into any real sensitive locations, I’d have chopped his legs off,” he tells me.

* * *

Our schedule is thrown off because some of the journalists flying in from London are delayed by fog. (In February: imagine!)

The main dessert is Pavlova, a meringue dish that Phil had mentioned to me during dinner on Monday. He says that it’s a staple in Belfast, but Wikipedia says that it’s an antipodean dish. Either way, it’s delicious, and qualifies as the other high point of the facility tour.

This isn’t to slight the information I gathered during the tour and the presentations; it’s more a sign of how amazing their Pavlova was.

* * *

All work, no play, etc. We get back to the hotel with an hour or so to clean up before a big dinner and bigger drinks. The dinner is somewhat standard fare; that is, it’s good, but it’s a limited menu because our group is so large. The roasted goat cheese salad is fantastic, which is something I never thought I’d write.

None of the food is “Irish,” specifically, which means I will go this entire trip without a specifically Irish meal. Except, of course, Guinness, the Stout That Drinks Like a Meal.

After dinner, we visit the Crown Bar, which turns out to be the greatest bar I’ve ever visited (crap selection of gin notwithstanding). I knock down some Vitamin G, only to discover that the marketing manager who coordinated this whole trip is drinking wine, and Philip is drinking Harp. At that point, I begin to suspect that the whole Guinness fetish is just for show, to lure in tourists. Undaunted, I keep drinking. We cram into padded, walled-off booths and talk about kids, flying, music, Valentine’s day, and the bomb-induced crack in the house’s stained glass facade.

* * *

The Crown closes at 11pm on Tuesday, so we head around the back to Fibber McGee’s, where a band — guitar, banjo and fiddle — plays traditional Irish folk. I feel like I’ve walked into an Irishman’s dream of home. It’s loud, hot, packed with young and old drinkers. Remembering the bartender’s flip-out on Sunday night, I decide not to look at anyone for more than a moment.

But I never really feel unsafe. Throughout the trip, in fact, I’m struck by the openness of conversation. No one seems averse to talking about The Troubles, nor the lingering issues. It’s inescapable, of course. These are people who lived in a state of low-intensity urban warfare; you don’t just pretend it never happened. That said, it also doesn’t seem to define the people I met, with the possible exception of the bus driver up to the Causeway. Shortly before reaching the highway, he told us a tale of seeing several of his army buddies killed by an RPG.

At the Crown, Philip & I discuss theology, compare and contrast The Troubles to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and talk about the need for businesses to invest in the region. He can tell how much I’ve enjoyed the short stay and invites me to come back and use his second home (I think; this wasn’t really clear) up near the Giant’s Causeway. “Bring your wife!” And I’m tempted.

At Fibber McGee’s, it’s too loud for talk, at least with my too-deep voice. So I just soak up the atmosphere and the Guinness till 1:30 or so and head across the street to the Europa for a little sleep before the trip home.

* * *

Our hired car takes a London-based passenger over to George Best Belfast City Airport, before bringing me and another trade-writer to the “international” airport out in farmland. On the way, the driver points out the two huge cranes in the shipyard: Samson & Goliath.

He says, “That shipyard there is where the Titanic was built. And it was just fine when we gave it to the English!”

Feel the burn

I’ve been a fan of Derek Lowe’s pharma-blog for years. So much so that I offered him a spot as a regular contributor in my magazine. His writings on the economics of pharma companies and the vagaries of R&D are gems.

That said, I sometimes glaze over when he writes about esoteric aspects of medicinal chemistry. It’s not that I find them boring; I just don’t have any background that would help me with what he’s talking about. But then there are times he manages to cross over beautifully from the lab to the general audience.

Today, for example, in his series on lab accidents, he explains that there’s actually a substance that will cause sand to catch fire.

There’s a report from the early 1950s . . . of a one-ton spill of [chlorine trifluoride]. It burned its way through a foot of concrete floor and chewed up another meter of sand and gravel beneath, completing a day that I’m sure no one involved ever forgot. That process, I should add, would necessarily have been accompanied by copious amounts of horribly toxic and corrosive by-products: it’s bad enough when your reagent ignites wet sand, but the clouds of hot hydrofluoric acid are your special door prize if you’re foolhardy enough to hang around and watch the fireworks.

Give it a read.

Standard Operating Procedures

I’m off to Belfast tonight for a client visit. Better go over my checklist!

E-check-in, print boarding pass, dig up passport: check

Pack suit, toiletries, walking-around clothes: check

Put together electronics kit, with chargers and international outlet adapter: check

Check battery in noise-canceling headphones, charge iPod and camera: check

Find some reading material downstairs in the library: check and check

Receive e-mail from my father with a joke about a plane crashing:

check

Pack extra Xanax for flight: check

More like “F”-mail

Back in the 1990s when Tom Spurgeon was editing The Comics Journal, he was kind enough to publish some of my short comics reviews. Since the irascible publisher of the magazine was named Gary “a man should be judged by the quality of his enemies” Groth, some people thought my byline was actually his nom de plume. This led me to write an About the Contributors note reading, “Gil Roth is not a clever pseudonym for Gary Groth. In fact, he’s not very clever at all.”

More recently, and for the same reason, I was convinced that the “comic” strip Gil Thorp is a bizarre prank targeting me, and only me. (Okay, and him and him.)

But none of these odd connections can top the incredible screwup that took place last week, when a drug company’s outside law-firm accidentally e-mailed secret documents about a government negotiation . . . to a pharma-writer at the New York Times. Portfolio, take it away!

When the New York Times broke the story last week that Eli Lilly & Co. was in confidential settlement talks with the government, angry calls flew behind the scenes as the drug giant’s executives accused federal officials of leaking the information.

As the company’s lawyers began turning over rocks closer to home, however, they discovered what could be called A Nightmare on Email Street, a pharmaceutical consultant told Portfolio.com. One of its outside lawyers at Philadelphia-based Pepper Hamilton had mistakenly emailed confidential information on the talks to Times reporter Alex Berenson instead of Bradford Berenson, her co-counsel at Sidley Austin. . . .

Proving that

  1. the auto-complete function was obviously designed by Satan (or Microsoft)
  2. a man should be judged by the quality of his mistaken identity

(hat tip to Pharmalot and S&A)

(UPDATE: Dammit! I knew this was too good to be true!)

In Equity

Speaking of not being able to handle prosperity, the first details of Jerome Kerviel’s testimony have been leaked:

As of Dec. 31, 2007, my gains had reached €1.4 billion ($2 billion), which I had not declared to the bank. At that point I had been overtaken by events and didn’t know how to present this to the bank. It represented undeclared cash of €1.4 billion. No one else had ever realized such a sum, which represented 50% of the total result of the equity-index division of SocGen. I didn’t know how to deal with it, I was happy and proud of myself, but I didn’t know how to justify it. Thus I decided not to declare it, and to hide the sum, I created an opposite fictional operation.

Bean Crazy

My pal Jon-Eric has brought me along to some NY/NJ Giants football games in the last few years, on occasions when his brother can’t use their ticket. The seats his family has are great: lower tier, 47-yard line, just below the overhang of the mezzanine. It’s a great view, somewhat protected from crappy weather, and we always have great tailgate get-togethers in the parking lot beforehand.

And when the Giants invariably cough up a lead, fumble during a big drive, or call 3 consecutive runs for -2 yards, we are graced with his dad’s signature comment: “They can’t handle prosperity, Jon-Eric!”

We joke about having a betting pool based on what point in the game his dad will utter those words, to the point of one of us handing a $5 to the other after the statement.

Which brings me to Starbucks. Our trip to Seattle last year coincided with Howard Schultz’ publicized memo about how his company had lost its way and needed to rediscover itself. Since, Schultz has reclaimed the CEO position, and is trying to retrench the company.

The story of Starbucks and how it handles “life at the top” echoes Jon-Eric’s dad’s sentiments: they can’t handle prosperity.

One of the aspects of business that fascinates me is this question of how a company copes with being a leader. I find it instructional to look at how businesses try to stay on top, particularly when they’ve established an overwhelming position in their field. Because they never stay on top: an unforeseen competitor shows up and eats its lunch, or the game changes around the market leader and its field is rendered useless, or it engages in dubious business practices that land it in serious regulatory trouble. Or a combination.

In Starbucks’ case, market dominance led to an attempt to diversify its product offerings, with the attendant loss of “romance” that Schultz lamented in his memo. I’d love to see a time-lapse map showing the opening and closing of Starbucks locations in the last 10 years; I bet there’d be a very organic/epidemiological appearance to it.

Here’s an article on how the company is trying to cope, and how local coffeeshops are benefiting as Starbucks closes some of its locations.

I think the upshot of the piece is the discovery that, even if the company is facing upheaval, at least it’s taken a big step in making sure its employees don’t breed:

Geoff Vuleta, chief executive of Fahrenheit 212, an innovation consultancy in New York, said Starbucks had lost focus on the experience that drew customers in the first place by neutering the baristas and by crowding the stores with merchandise, or as he put it, “replacing mystique with relentless commerce.”

Me? I still think their black coffee sucks, and that’s my make-or-break criteria. Maybe I need to try it with some sambuca, the way Jon-Eric’s dad’s pals end our tailgate parties before the Giants’ games. . .

(Update! Starbucks is going to stop selling sandwiches. I didn’t know they were selling sandwiches, but they showed me! The company is also planning to announce “five bold innovations” at its shareholders meeting on March 19. Unless it involves a caffeine IV-drip, I ain’t interested.)

Risky Business

It’s gettin’ so a businessman can’t expect no return from a fixed fight. Now if you can’t trust the fix, what can you trust? For a good return, you gotta go bettin’ on chance, and then you’re back with anarchy. Right back inna jungle.

—Johnny Caspar, Miller’s Crossing

In the midst of massive writeoff & layoff announcements from major U.S. banks, France’s Societe General SA announced a $7.2 billion writeoff (14% of its market capitalization), much of which was blamed on the actions of Jerome Kerviel, a low-level trader who had somehow managed to place $73 billion on stock-market bets (the bank’s market cap is $50 billion). The case is under investigation, and many outsiders are wondering exactly how one “rogue trader” could put that much money at risk.

A lesser-noted aspect of SG’s writeoff is that it also includes $1.6 billion in subprime mortgage exposure, $800 million in U.S. insurance bond exposure, and another $580 million set aside for future liabilities in those two areas. The bank is trying to raise around $8.0 billion in funds through a new share offering. So, sure, SocGen got wrecked by Kerviel’s improper bets, but it also managed to torch itself for almost $3.0 billion in losses based on bets that were perfectly proper.

And that brings me to the topic of risk. A few months ago, I wrote in my magazine (and reposted here) about the subject in light of quantitative hedge funds, subprime mortgages and Hudson Hawk:

Funnily enough, while we’re free of gold, we haven’t gotten over alchemy. Instead of la machina oro, we have “quant funds,” those hedge funds that employ statistical models so sophisticated that they can “find winning trade strategies,” as the Wall Street Journal puts it. From equations to money, like magic!

Turns out one of these winning trade strategies was investing in financial instruments that were based heavily on subprime mortgages (that is, the practice of giving large loans to people who have poor credit). Some of these sophisticated investing models managed to underestimate the risk of — repeat after me — giving large loans to people who have poor credit. [. . .]

Evaluating risk — the true foundation of finance — lost its meaning. For a while.

Now, I know a lot of readers’ eyes tend to glaze over when I try to write about business and/or finance on this site, but I really think

  1. it’s important that we try to understand the market and governmental forces that shape our day-to-day lives, and
  2. there are deeper meanings to all this stuff.

In this instance, I’ve been trying to understand what risk is and why the risk management systems at so many financial institutions determined they could afford to take on the investments that have led to billions of dollars in losses.

For instance, an article in the Wall Street Journal (pay-only, I think) discussed the breakdown in risk protection by companies like Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley:

“Until recently, every investment bank believed it had built an outstanding risk-management system,” Ken Moelis, former head of investment banking at UBS, wrote in a November letter to his new firm’s investors. Mr. Moelis now runs his own investment bank. “Through computer models and endless analysis, the banks believed they could measure every risk to the nth degree.” But reliance on such models and manuals “overlooked” the importance of “human judgment and the ability to evaluate the numbers being generated,” he added.

Like there’s no interesting metaphor in that? Come on!

Actually, as I did more reading on the subject in the last few weeks, I discovered that a much better writer than I did the heavy lifting for me! Earlier this month, John Lanchester (author of The Debt To Pleasure, which you really oughtta read) published Cityphilia, an epic article on finance, risk, life in London, the bank-run on Northern Rock, and how Money Changes Everything.

Lanchester does a fantastic job of explaining how credit markets work and why they can fail to work. It’s an awfully long piece, but I highly recommend it for a variety of reasons.

In the midst of the article, Lanchester cites writer Peter Bernstein, who contends that “the study of risk is a humanist project, an attempt to abolish the idea of unknowable fate and replace it with the rational, quantifiable study of chance.”

And I realized that’s where my fascination lies: this idea that the world is knowable.

Whether for the purpose of dismantling fate or “making our fortune,” isn’t that the goal of so much of our art, so many of our sciences?

* * *

Bonus Reading! Joy!

Cityphilia – The article by John Lanchester that kicked this off.

My Theory of Everything – Friedrich von Blowhard on the New Class, which reaps rewards without taking capital risks.

How Real was the Prosperity? – If it turns out that much of the economic growth was based on obviously flawed lending practices, then how real was the money? (Of course, I think about that in a more existential manner than this reporter, but I’m not writing for BusinessWeek.)

Fraud Costs Bank $7.1 Billion – One of the first articles on Jerome Kerviel’s transactions that may or may not sink Societe General SA.

SocGen Had Been Warned About Kerviel – Is 164-year-old SocGen gonna get blow’d up?

Once Again, the Risk Protection Fails – Let’s “manage” “risk”.

Good and Bad Capitalists – Sebastian Mallaby argues that hedge fund managers are more responsible than banks. Go back to Cityphilia and check out the section on Long Term Capital Management.

Tuesday Morning Quarterback – Gregg Easterbrook has a great section on CEO pay, even after companies get rocked for tremendous losses. (Search for the phrase “suppose the general manager”.)

What’s $34 Billion on Wall St.? – In that same vein . . .

French Trader was Forced To Work 30 Hours a Week – The horrible truth on why Kerviel made all those disastrous market bets.

Double-bonus! Now you can buy Jerome Kerviel t-shirts, ladies! 4.9 billion Euros: Respect!Â